AGP Executive Report

Hormuz Flashpoint: Iran’s IRGC Navy says it stopped three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after warnings were ignored, as Tehran keeps control of the key chokepoint. Saudi-US Iraq Strikes: Saudi Arabia says it carried out joint precision strikes with US CENTCOM in eastern Iraq against Iran-backed militia sites tied to drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities; CENTCOM says the strikes targeted logistics and weapons sites and that attacks on US forces failed. Regional Fallout: Iraq’s prime minister called an emergency national security meeting after the US-Saudi strikes, while Kuwait condemned the militia attacks as a threat to Gulf stability. Oil Market Whiplash: Oil prices swung on the renewed fighting—dropping earlier on hopes of easing US-Iran tensions, then jumping again after missile and strike developments. Energy Diplomacy vs Hard Power: Oman’s proposal for joint Hormuz management was rejected by Iran, which insists Iranian control over key transit routes. Supply-Route Watch: Shipping data showed Bab el-Mandeb traffic at its highest in a week, with some crude tankers exiting toward the Gulf of Aden and Pakistan. Egypt Gas Rumor Denied: An Egyptian source denied a reported new natural gas deal with Israel.

US-Iran brinkmanship: Trump says “good talks” with Iran are underway but warns he’ll strike “Pickaxe Mountain,” bridges and power plants if no deal is reached, while Iran’s deputy foreign minister rejects the idea of negotiations and points to Oman’s Hormuz proposal. Hormuz governance: Oman is pushing a Malacca-style system of voluntary fees and joint management for Strait of Hormuz; Iran rejects Oman’s earlier route-splitting idea and warns any country benefiting from frozen Iranian assets won’t be allowed to transit. Oil market swing: Oil prices slide on hopes of a US-Iran pause/ceasefire, with WTI and Brent easing as shipping fears cool. Saudi-Iraq drone war: Saudi air defenses intercepted and destroyed drones launched from Iraq targeting Eastern Province oil facilities; Saudi vows to respond, as Houthis claim attacks on Saudi-linked tankers. Turkey-Iraq energy push: Erdogan hosts Iraqi PM al-Zaidi in Ankara as both countries agree to deepen energy cooperation, including restarting the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and Turkey Petroleum taking a stake in Kirkuk. Yemen Red Sea risk: Houthis claim ballistic missile strikes on a Saudi oil tanker, keeping Bab el-Mandeb disruption risk in focus.

Hormuz diplomacy: Oman has proposed a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with voluntary fees, aiming to prevent Iran from exercising sole control and to help restart shipping after the US paused strikes; Iran’s foreign minister also held talks with Saudi and Omani counterparts on stabilising the waterway. Oil prices & markets: Crude slid sharply as hopes of renewed US-Iran talks grew and attacks were paused, with Brent and WTI both down around 1.7–2% in early trading; traders are still watching Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb risks as shipping remains choppy. Shipping flows: Bab el-Mandeb traffic rose to a four-day high while Hormuz traffic stayed weak, underscoring how quickly energy routes can swing with diplomacy or renewed strikes. Regional security spillover: Saudi Arabia said it shot down drones targeting its petroleum facilities, while Iran-linked attacks and counterclaims keep the threat of escalation alive. Energy infrastructure: Eni and TotalEnergies took FID for Cyprus’ first gas development, feeding LNG via Egypt’s Zohr and Damietta. Policy pressure in the region: Pakistan approved amendments to modernise refineries for Euro-V petrol and diesel, while consumer groups in the Philippines criticised moves to scrap electricity system loss charges as not fixing deeper energy-cost problems. Economic knock-ons: Australia warned Middle East escalation could push global inflation higher as oil buffers thin; India’s growth outlook also faces pressure from higher oil prices and weak investment.

US-Iran De-escalation Watch: Trump says the US and Iran are having “good talks” and there’s a “good chance” of a deal, but strikes will resume if negotiations fail, keeping markets jittery. Saudi Oil Infrastructure Under Fire: Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed drones launched from Iraq targeting oil facilities in the Eastern Province and Riyadh; Riyadh blames Iran-backed militias, while Iraq orders probes and Gulf states (including Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, UAE) condemn the attacks. Yemen-Houthi Escalation: Houthis claim drone strikes hit Saudi crude supply and transport points feeding Yanbu, framing it as retaliation for Saudi actions over Yemen. Hormuz Shipping Pressure: CENTCOM says it redirected 17 commercial vessels and disabled two under a renewed naval blockade, underscoring how quickly maritime risk can return even during pauses. Iraq Power Crunch & Solar Push: Iraq’s electricity output covers only about one-third of demand; parliament approved reforms, including reopening corruption cases and expanding solar via a soft-loan scheme, while Dana Gas restarts phased production at Khor Mor after security assurances. Regional Energy Routes: Lebanon proposes an Iraq-to-Mediterranean oil transit route to bypass Hormuz, as Iraq seeks alternative pipeline outlets. Market Impact: Oil slid sharply on the pause, with Brent dropping toward the high-$80s, easing supply fears but not ending infrastructure risk. Investment Signals: Brookfield raised about $2bn with Saudi PIF backing for a Middle East private equity fund, despite conflict-driven uncertainty. Supply-Side Outlook: Baker Hughes expects producers to modestly cut 2026 oil and gas spending as firms prioritize existing assets and flexibility.

Oil Market Mood: Brent and WTI slid about 5–6% in early Asia after a second straight night of US-Iran strike pauses, easing fears of a wider Hormuz disruption and lifting risk sentiment. Hormuz Shipping Tension: Iran said six vessels tried an “unauthorized” route south of the Strait of Hormuz and turned back five; the US side kept its blockade posture in place, leaving traders wary that the lull may not restore normal flows. Diplomacy vs Escalation: US envoy Mike Waltz said Trump is giving talks “some room” while keeping “all options” open; Iran signaled it will halt retaliatory attacks if the US pause holds, but the arrangement is not a formal ceasefire. Regional Spillover: Markets also tracked Houthis’ attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and reports of a tanker mine blast in Hormuz, underscoring how quickly the conflict can widen beyond Iran. Domestic Energy Pressure (Iran): Iran’s fuel situation is tightening, with an exporter union warning of a ~20 million-litre daily gasoline deficit and near-impossible imports. Policy/Business Ripples: Egypt moved to restructure a military-linked economic body into a presidential authority, while markets weighed how lower crude could feed through to inflation and fuel prices.

US-Iran Pause & Hormuz Risk: After 13 nights of strikes, the US paused attacks on Iran and Iran halted retaliatory operations for two nights, giving diplomacy “some space” as Oman-led talks aim to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—though mine fears persist after reports of a tanker explosion following a naval mine hit. Oil Prices & Inflation: The lull eased some pressure, but oil still whipsawed around $100 as markets priced renewed supply-route disruption; gas prices in the US climbed back above $4 a gallon, reviving inflation worries. Maritime Flashpoints Beyond Hormuz: The conflict is spreading to new corridors, with Ukraine accusing Iran-linked cargo activity in the Caspian Sea and Iran warning it won’t go unanswered. Egypt Energy Exports & Renewables: Egypt’s petroleum exports surged to about $2.3bn in H1 as refinery output rose, while Egypt and the UK discussed expanding renewables, grid upgrades, and battery storage. Iran Clean Power Push: Iran inaugurated a 5MW geothermal plant at the Sabalan volcano site, signaling a broader shift to diversify power sources. US War Accounting Scrutiny: The Pentagon moved four US troop deaths from the Iran war tally into a new “Overseas Operations” category, sparking questions over how casualties are counted.

US Naval Blockade: CENTCOM says the US blockade against Iran is still in full effect, redirecting 12 commercial vessels and disabling two non-compliant tankers, including a verification boarding of an oil tanker in the Arabian Sea. Iran Oil Revenue Claims: Iran’s oil ministry says it sold about $18bn in oil during the war and the subsequent ceasefire, claiming the figure covers over 60% of budgeted oil income. US-Iran Strike Pause, Diplomacy Push: After 13 nights of airstrikes, the US paused operations again, citing concerns over Patriot interceptor and air-defense munitions stockpiles and wider escalation risks, while Trump keeps the option of a “much higher level” attack. Hormuz Talks: Iran says it made progress with Oman on Strait of Hormuz shipping mechanisms, focusing on safe passage and sovereignty, after earlier fee-related disputes. Red Sea Energy Risk: With the Hormuz front quieter, Yemen’s Houthis hit Saudi oil facilities near Jizan and Yanbu, raising fears for Red Sea exports and regional spillover. Gas Security Warning: Equinor’s CEO warns Europe may not fill gas storage to 80% before winter due to global supply tightness and LNG competition, with Hormuz disruption worsening the outlook. Iraq Export Glitch: US data shows no Iraqi crude imports for a fourth straight week, underlining how the conflict is reshaping flows. Regional Energy Planning: Cyprus says it aims to become a reliable energy exporter, with gas exports planned via Egypt liquefaction and power links to Greece and Israel.

Red Sea Flashpoint: Egypt and Saudi Arabia urged de-escalation and an end to military operations as Yemen’s Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi-linked Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, while Iran’s Araqchi called for dialogue and said there’s “no military solution” to Yemen. Shipping & Prices: With Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb under pressure, tankers are rerouting and costs are rising; oil hovered near $100 as markets weighed hopes for US-Iran talks against renewed strikes. Diplomacy Pause: Iran reported a “peaceful night” after a streak of US strikes, and Qatar said maritime navigation would fully resume from Sunday, though fresh incidents kept tensions high. Regional Energy Moves: Kuwait Petroleum Corp signed a $16bn lease-and-leaseback for its crude pipeline network (Project Peregrine) to attract global capital. Egypt’s Supply Security: Egypt said petroleum exports are set to rise, with refinery expansions and a $4.5bn push to cut imports and boost output. Iraq Grid Outlook: Iraq expects electricity gains from deals with Washington and Tehran plus interconnection projects with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: Houthis claimed a missile strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jizan as Riyadh retaliated with strikes on Hodeidah, while the Bab el-Mandeb embargo threat adds fresh risk to Red Sea oil flows. US-Iran Escalation at Sea: CENTCOM said it disabled a tanker after repeated attempts to breach the US blockade of Iranian ports, firing into the engine room; the incident follows 13 straight nights of US strikes. Hormuz Security Push: The US and UK plan a London meeting to build an international coalition to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil Price Whiplash: Global crude eased after flirting with $100, with Brent near $100 and WTI down on profit-taking, but analysts warn prices could jump again if chokepoints tighten. Local Costs Rise: Gas prices in Delaware hit about $4.15 and diesel about $5.35 as Iran-war supply fears feed into retail fuel. Diplomacy vs Pressure: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi said Tehran won’t bow to US “bullying,” while Trump said Iran is “more serious” in talks but not ready for a deal. Infrastructure Deal (Kuwait): KOC signed a $16bn lease-and-lease-back for its domestic and export pipeline network, locking in long-term pipeline tariffs amid regional uncertainty.

Oil Markets: Brent slipped back below $100 after topping it on Thursday, but the week’s gains stayed in focus as investors weighed Middle East chokepoints pressure from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Shipping & Insurance: Reuters said reroutes around Africa are adding weeks and about $2.5m per tanker, while Middle East crude premiums jumped to multi-month highs as Asian refiners seek alternatives. US-Iran Escalation: Iran targeted US strongholds around the Gulf as the US carried out a 13th straight night of strikes; Trump again floated a “massive attack,” warning China and Russia not to arm Iran. Diplomacy Attempts: Oman sent talks to Tehran on managing Hormuz navigation, while Pakistan explored a China-backed path to restart US-Iran talks; Iran rejected any temporary ceasefire without Hormuz demands. Regional Fallout: Jordan’s Aqaba tourism and business sentiment took a hit, and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region reported gasoline shortages after new price caps. Energy Industry Signals: Baker Hughes reported US rig counts fell for the first time in six weeks, hinting at caution even as supply risks keep markets jumpy. Maritime Incident: A Mozambique-flagged LPG tanker with Indian crew was attacked in Iranian waters near Hormuz; crew were reported safe.

US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out its 13th straight night of strikes on Iran, targeting command centers, drone storage, communications and coastal surveillance, as Bahrain sounded air-raid sirens and Gulf states stayed on alert. Red Sea Shock to Oil Flows: Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising fears of wider disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz and pushing Brent back above $100. Frozen-Assets Flashpoint: Trump said any ship or cargo damage in the Strait of Hormuz would be paid using Iranian funds held by the US; Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi called it an “incendiary precedent,” warning no assets would be safe if confiscation becomes normal. Iran’s Houthi Support: Reuters reports Iran flew IRGC commanders and missile/drone equipment into Yemen to train and bolster Houthi operations. Market Spillovers: Oil-led inflation fears hit equities from Europe to Asia, while Japan’s core inflation rose on higher imported energy costs tied to Hormuz disruption. Energy Trade Moves: ADNOC kept crude tenders running despite the turmoil, while traders weigh whether shuttle exports can keep working if attacks spread. Regional Diplomacy: China and ASEAN urged an immediate end to the Middle East conflict and stronger energy cooperation. Grid Stability (Philippines): Meralco kept buying gas-fired power beyond an expired deal under DOE guidance to avoid Luzon supply shortages, even as costs rise.

Red Sea Shock to Oil Markets: Brent surged past $100 a barrel after Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, raising fears of a wider Middle East shipping squeeze as Trump vowed “major military punishment” for Iran-backed strikes. GCC-Jordan Condemnation: GCC states and Jordan jointly denounced Iranian aggression, citing attacks on energy and civilian infrastructure and reaffirming self-defense and freedom of navigation through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. US-Iran Escalation Politics: The US House passed a non-binding war powers resolution to end Iran hostilities unless Congress authorizes, while Trump signaled he is close to approving a “massive” expanded attack; UN experts warned the renewed fighting is undermining a recent MOU. Nuclear Deal, New Conditions: The US and Saudi Arabia signed a long-term civil nuclear cooperation “123 Agreement,” with IAEA awaiting formal requests, as Trump added that Riyadh must normalize ties with Israel—fueling arms-race concerns. Energy Costs at Home: Higher crude is already feeding into fuel prices, with AAA reporting Alabama gasoline up week-on-week, and broader inflation worries returning. Regional Energy Projects: Egypt and Russia discussed expanding cooperation including a logistics corridor for grain and petroleum products and progress on the El Dabaa nuclear plant.

Red Sea Shipping Shock: Houthis say they struck two Saudi oil tankers (Encelia and Layla) and imposed a naval blockade, while UKMTO reported a projectile hit that sparked a fire—raising fears of a second global chokepoint alongside Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran Escalation: The US carried out a 12th straight night of strikes on Iranian military targets as Trump warned he’ll destroy a bridge or power plant for every Hormuz ship attack, with Iran warning of reciprocal retaliation. Oil Market Jitters: Brent pushed to six-week highs near $96-$97 as traders priced in longer disruptions; analysts warn the Strait and Bab el-Mandeb risks could keep refined fuel markets tight. Nuclear Deal With Saudi: The US and Saudi Arabia signed a “123” civilian nuclear cooperation and safeguards agreement, with a pathway for enrichment after a joint study—sparking fresh proliferation concerns in Washington and the region. Regional Energy Fallout: Iraq’s oil revenue loss is estimated at $40-$45bn since the war began, and CPC pipeline loading was suspended after attacks near the Black Sea terminal. ASEAN Diplomacy: ASEAN foreign ministers’ talks with partners focused on energy and food security amid West Asia turmoil, with calls for stronger supply-chain and power-grid cooperation.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: US President Trump vowed “one bridge or power plant” destroyed in Iran for every Iranian attack on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran warned of “eye for an eye” retaliation and said infrastructure strikes would trigger broader regional targeting. Oil Markets: The threats and continued US-Iran strikes pushed Brent above $95 and kept crude up around 3% as traders priced in renewed supply-route disruption. Diplomacy vs Pressure: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Asian leaders in Manila that any Iranian tolling/control of the strait would set a dangerous precedent, as talks appear stalled. Regional Spillover: The US and Pakistan condemned Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping, with Rubio linking the blockade risk to Iran’s wider pressure campaign. Nuclear Deal Watch: Saudi Arabia’s pathway to enrich nuclear fuel under a US-backed pact drew alarm in Washington over safeguards and inspections. Energy Infrastructure Risk: Iran’s IRGC warned strikes on bridges/power sites could mean blackouts for regional allies, underscoring how quickly power and shipping risks are feeding into energy costs. Local Energy Moves: Cyprus signed an MoU to sell Aphrodite gas to Egypt, aiming to move the offshore field toward production.

US-Iran Strikes: The US completed its 11th straight night of strikes on Iran, targeting military operations, maritime assets, drone storage and logistics, while Washington says the Strait of Hormuz remains open and has helped move about 900 ships and 450 million barrels since early May. Red Sea Shipping Risk: Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis escalated the pressure by threatening a naval blockade of Saudi ports; three Saudi crude tankers reportedly made U-turns in the Red Sea toward the Suez Canal, adding fresh supply risk. Oil & Gold: Brent pushed near $93 and WTI above $86 on renewed supply fears; gold hit a two-week high as investors weighed Middle East friction and rate outlook. Diplomacy Under Strain: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told ASEAN the US is open to talks but says Iran is “not serious,” warning against any precedent of a state controlling an international waterway. Saudi Nuclear Deal: Trump approved a 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation pact with Saudi Arabia that could allow uranium enrichment after feasibility work, with Congress review expected. Regional Energy Impact: Reuters warns Asian refiners may struggle to ramp up in August as Gulf crude exports face delays, while UN agencies warn energy shocks could worsen hunger.

US-Iran Escalation: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told senators the Iran war has cost $37.5B so far, as Washington weighs “ten times harder” strikes and Trump warns the U.S. is “not finished,” with threats aimed at the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex near Natanz. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Shipping through Hormuz is largely stalled, with Iran attacking a tanker and markets watching for wider disruption of roughly one-fifth of global crude and gas flows. Houthi Red Sea Threat: Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, forcing Saudi crude tankers to reroute and raising fears of a new chokepoint squeeze via Bab el-Mandeb. Diplomacy Under Strain: Pakistan’s mediation push continues as Iran’s interior minister visits Islamabad, but Trump says the U.S. has “no interest in meeting,” while the UN urges stepped-up diplomacy. Regional Energy Fallout: Kuwait reports power and desalination units hit for a fourth day; fuel prices are rising again in the Philippines amid Middle East tension. Aid for Resilience: Kuwait’s KFAED and UNDP signed a $3M grant to fund solar and efficiency upgrades for Lebanon’s public services, cutting reliance on diesel generators. Trade Signals: India exported $545M of goods to Iraq in Q1, led by rice and petroleum oils.