AGP Executive Report

Strait of Hormuz Security: Iran warned oil tankers to use Tehran-approved routes and said any US interference would trigger a “decisive and swift” response, as talks with Washington continue. Iran–Japan Oil Trade: Iran has started talks with Japanese firms to resume crude exports under a temporary US sanctions waiver, but buyers want a longer exemption and assurances on Gulf shipping security. Regional Risk to Energy Flows: Fitch cautioned that the Middle East conflict still threatens global businesses and oil prices in 2026, pointing to a fragile ceasefire framework and ongoing Iran-linked uncertainty. Proxy Tensions and Chabahar: Reports say Iraqi militia fighters’ prominent role at Khamenei’s funeral signals a tightening Iran proxy network, raising concerns for India’s Chabahar lifeline and Strait of Hormuz transit. Iraq–Türkiye Oil Exports: Iraq says it and Türkiye are close to signing an oil export protocol to keep crude flows moving, including from the Kurdistan region. Bahrain–Iran Accusations: Bahrain pressed the UN Security Council over what it calls sustained Iranian attacks on GCC infrastructure and civilians. Middle East Spillover to Africa: Coface warned Middle East conflict-driven inflation and supply disruptions will weigh on African economies through 2027, even as some oil exporters like Nigeria may benefit. Southern Africa Energy Link: Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Energy endorsed the Southern Africa Eco-Infrastructure Summit in Victoria Falls, pitching clean energy and energy efficiency as investment drivers.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya command warned oil tankers to use its approved routes or face a “forceful response,” as IRGC special forces reportedly monitor vessels along the Persian Gulf coastline and seek shipping schedules via Oman. US-Iran Diplomacy: Indirect talks in Doha ended with “positive progress” on interim MoU items, but no lasting peace breakthrough; the next round is expected after Khamenei funeral processions. Oil Prices Watch: With Hormuz flows partially resuming, Brent and WTI edged up before the US holiday, while Citi warned Brent could fall to $60 as shipping normalizes and physical markets weaken. Gulf Supply Signals: Kuwait boosted crude output sharply in June to about 1.65m bpd, and Saudi exports rebounded toward pre-war levels. UAE Economy: The UAE’s non-oil private sector posted its weakest June in five years, with employment contracting as Iran-war fallout hits demand. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s PM ordered intensified anti-corruption enforcement, including targeting economic crime networks and recovering public funds. Nuclear Oversight: The IAEA said enriched uranium stockpiles are likely still at Iran’s nuclear sites, but inspectors need renewed access after strikes.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s joint military command warned tankers to use Tehran-approved routes or face “forceful response,” as US-Iran indirect talks in Qatar continue but without a lasting peace breakthrough. Oil Prices: Brent and WTI slid for a third straight day as Qatar said “positive progress” on the MoU helped ease supply disruption fears, while Saudi exports rebounded toward near-normal levels. Frozen Funds Dispute: Qatar denied claims that Iran’s $6bn assets were transferred to Tehran, saying the money remains in Qatari banks under US-linked restrictions. Regional Security: Bahrain took Iran to the UN Security Council over missile and drone strikes, citing civilian harm and a near chemical-disaster at an ammonia storage site. Energy Infrastructure: Türkiye and Iraq are racing to renew the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline deal, with Ankara pushing for full capacity before July 27. Investment Push: Pakistan’s energy ministry met China’s Shandong Xinxu, pitching long-term upstream, refinery modernization, and LNG-linked investment across the value chain. Gas Market Reality (US): Even as crude eased, CNBC highlighted why retail gasoline may stay sticky due to tight product supply and refiners running near maximum.

US-Iran Talks & Hormuz Shipping: Oil slid for a third straight day as Qatar said “positive progress” was made in indirect Doha talks focused on implementing the June MoU—especially Strait of Hormuz shipping and unfreezing-related issues—though there was no sign of a lasting peace and the nuclear file was left for later. Oil Prices: Brent and WTI both fell to four-month lows as Hormuz flows kept rising and traders started pricing in more supply and possible OPEC+ output target hikes from August. Regional Security Stance: Iran’s deputy FM said West Asia security can’t be built under a US military umbrella, while Iran reiterated its control over Hormuz. Egypt Clean Power Deals: Egypt’s NREA signed clean electricity transmission and power purchase agreements with SCZONE Utilities and SCCT for East Port Said Port and industrial/commercial users. Egypt Storage Push: Egypt’s Cabinet granted “Golden Licenses” worth $800m for two battery energy storage projects in Aswan and Suez, aiming to strengthen grid resilience as renewables grow. Philippines Oil Buffer Plan: Philippines energy officials said a strategic oil reserve could be built within the administration timeline, targeting completion around late 2027/early 2028. Energy Policy Trend: Dozens of countries backed energy efficiency as a core policy lever to cut costs and reduce future shock exposure.

US-Iran talks & Hormuz shipping: Indirect technical talks resumed in Doha via Qatari and Pakistani mediators, focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and turning a 14-point interim MoU into a longer ceasefire framework; Iran insists on maintaining control and possible fees, while the US says denuclearisation is progressing and warns it won’t restart full combat unless necessary. Oil market swings: Brent and WTI moved on ceasefire optimism and renewed uncertainty after Iran declined direct talks, with prices still sensitive to any shipping disruption risk around the corridor. Egypt fuel pricing: Egypt will restart its Fuel Automatic Pricing Committee in Q1, using its formula tied to global crude and the exchange rate, after the US-Iran conflict pushed international prices higher. Grid storage push (Saudi Arabia): Saudi Power Procurement Company prequalified 27 firms for six utility-scale BESS projects totaling 3 GW/12 GWh across provinces, aiming to boost reliability and renewable integration. UNDP warning on subsidies: A UNDP report says Middle East conflict fallout is forcing developing countries to burn fiscal space on fossil fuel subsidies, with subsidies projected to hit $1.1T in 2026. Nigeria fuel pricing enforcement: Nigeria’s regulator warned it will sanction oil marketers selling PMS above cost-reflective levels despite easing global crude prices.

US-Iran Talks Stumble: Iran says it will not meet U.S. envoys in Doha and wants ceasefire terms settled first, while Kushner and Witkoff arrive for mediator-led talks—keeping Strait of Hormuz reopening and nuclear issues in limbo. Oil Market Mood: Crude edges up as traders weigh patchy Hormuz flows and the risk of renewed disruption, with Brent around $73 and WTI near $70. MoU Conditions: Iran’s parliament speaker says a final deal won’t move forward unless key MoU paragraphs—ceasefire enforcement, Hormuz reopening, waivers, and frozen-asset releases—are implemented. Energy Bills Pressure (UK): Ofgem’s price cap rises 13%, and millions of households are urged to submit smart meter readings to avoid higher charges. India Supply Buffer: India plans a 30-day LPG storage buffer after the Hormuz risk shock. Oman Power Build: Siemens Energy lands tech and 20-year services for Oman’s 2.6 GW Misfah and Duqm gas power projects.

Hormuz & Oil Markets: Iran and the US keep trading mixed signals as envoys head to Qatar for talks, but Iran says no direct US meetings are planned; meanwhile, oil is set for its biggest quarterly slide since 2020 as investors weigh easing risk versus fragile Strait of Hormuz shipping. Maritime Security: Iran rejects France/UK mine-clearing plans for Hormuz, insisting demining is its responsibility under the MoU; Oman backs Iran’s role in keeping the strait safe and opposes transit fees. Nuclear Fallout: A new assessment says Iran holds 400+ kg of 60% enriched uranium and is resisting full IAEA access to key struck sites, keeping the nuclear track tense. Egypt Gas Push: Egypt’s petroleum ministry reaffirmed support for Dana Gas in Egypt, citing reserve gains and plans to expand drilling and production. Local Energy Politics: Iraq’s anti-corruption purge is disrupting Iranian oil-smuggling networks, while Basra oil workers protest unpaid dues and Iraq moves to extend the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline deal. MENA Macro: The IMF/UM6P urged MENA to treat shocks from volatile energy prices and disrupted trade routes as a chance to accelerate structural reforms.

US-Iran Diplomacy vs. Gulf Tensions: Trump says Iran requested a Doha meeting Tuesday, but Tehran insists no direct talks are scheduled and says its experts will go to Qatar to discuss the interim MoU via mediators—leaving the next step on the Strait of Hormuz fragile. Strait of Hormuz Watch: Shipping is picking up after a pause in strikes, yet analysts warn recovery may be slower than hoped as operators stay cautious and insurance/cost risks linger. Oil Market Mood: Brent and WTI hover near pre-war levels, but Morgan Stanley warns a glut risk if Hormuz flows rebound enough; traders also track a surge in tankers returning to the Persian Gulf. Egypt Energy & Finance: Egypt’s IMF review unlocks about $1.6bn, while Goldman Sachs estimates the Egyptian pound’s fair value around EGP 43/$, citing easing Gulf stress. Power Sector Moves (Egypt): EEHC signs a smart meter deal with e& for nationwide rollout; Elsewedy Electric expands generator offerings. Renewables (Egypt): Sterling and Wilson Renewable and Hassan Allam win a ~USD 560m solar plus 600MWh BESS EPC order in West Minya. Iraq Governance & Energy Links: Iraq opens a special account for recovered illicit funds as anti-corruption expands; Iraq’s FM visits Syria to boost energy and security cooperation.

US-Iran De-escalation Talks: The US and Iran agreed to “stand down” and hold talks in Doha on June 30 after weekend ceasefire strain, but the diplomacy looks fragile as Washington says Iran requested a meeting while Tehran denies planned negotiations at any level in the coming days. Strait of Hormuz Focus: Both sides are centering discussions on managing the Strait of Hormuz and keeping commercial shipping moving freely, with Iran warning against bypass routes and rejecting France’s Hormuz demining plan. Iran Frozen Funds: Iran’s president says Qatar will release $6bn of frozen Iranian assets under the interim MoU, with half expected to be returned soon, alongside oil and petrochemical sanctions relief. Iraq Governance & Energy: Iraq’s anti-corruption crackdown in Baghdad’s Green Zone has swept up dozens of officials, including figures tied to the oil sector, raising questions about how quickly governance reforms can reach energy patronage networks. Regional Energy Projects: Abu Dhabi’s ADNOC onshore Bab Gas Cap concession adds TotalEnergies’ 10% stake, targeting 1.5 bcfd, while Turkey’s Sineng Electric and Arde Enerji signed a 1GW solar inverter/PCS supply deal. Fuel Price Signals: Global oil cooled as tensions eased, but local fuel relief remains uneven; in the US, gas averages fell for weeks as markets watched Hormuz risk.

Strait of Hormuz Tension Check: The US and Iran agreed to “stand down” and let vessels move freely after days of tit-for-tat strikes that rattled the interim ceasefire, with technical talks set to continue and a fresh round reportedly heading to Doha, keeping a tight lid on oil supply fears even as shipping security remains fragile. Oil Market Mood: Brent and WTI edged higher as investors priced in a possible reopening of flows, but analysts warned the market is still prone to upside risk if recovery of shipments proves slow. Shipping Still Moves: Despite the flare-ups, Middle East producers kept loading oil and LNG, with Saudi Ras Tanura seeing VLCC activity, while some tankers reportedly “went dark” to reduce attack risk. Regional Fallout: Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait after US strikes underscored how quickly the Hormuz dispute can reignite. Energy Costs Ripple: In the UK, Ofgem’s price cap rises to £1,862/year from July 1, but forecasts improve for autumn as wholesale costs ease after the latest US-Iran de-escalation. Local Industry Watch (Egypt): Egypt reviewed a $30m smart lighting factory project, aiming to localize advanced lighting tech and support renewable-linked supply chains. Iraq Governance: Iraq’s PM said an anti-corruption crackdown is in its “first phase,” with 47 arrests reported in the Green Zone.

Gulf Security & Shipping: Iran renewed drone and missile attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain after fresh US strikes, with Kuwait saying it intercepted two ballistic missiles and Bahrain reporting damage near the airport—raising fears the US-Iran ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz shipping arrangements are slipping. Strait of Hormuz Control: Iran’s foreign minister warned ships not to bypass Tehran’s preferred corridor, insisting any deviation will “increase tensions,” as both sides trade accusations over the MoU’s Article 5 on safe passage. Oil Market Pressure: Crude prices slid more than 3% as tankers kept exiting the Strait of Hormuz and supply fears eased, while Saudi Aramco resumed loading at Ras Tanura after a near four-month halt. Saudi Energy Incident: A Saudi Aramco helicopter crash near Ras Tanura killed all 14 aboard; investigations are underway. Egypt Energy Policy: Egypt began the first phase of oil-sector privatization by listing three public companies on the EGX, tied to IMF-aligned reforms. Consumer Fuel Watch: Nigeria’s FCCPC warned fuel prices are not falling enough despite crude drops, hinting at downstream exploitation and possible sanctions. Iraq Governance: Iraq detained 47 officials in a major anti-corruption crackdown, including oil-linked figures, while the Iraqi Bar Association said it will not provide defense. Pakistan Energy Moves: Pakistan is considering importing cheaper oil and gas from Iran under a US waiver, while urging strict adherence to the US-Iran ceasefire.

US-Iran Escalation: The interim ceasefire is fraying fast as the US says it struck Iranian missile, drone storage and coastal radar sites after a tanker attack near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran and the IRGC retaliated with drone and missile strikes on US-linked bases in Kuwait and Bahrain and warned talks could face a “complete halt.” Shipping & Energy Security: The Strait of Hormuz remains the flashpoint, with maritime agencies flagging risks to commercial traffic as both sides argue over approved routes and enforcement. Regional Spillover: Bahrain and Kuwait reported drone/missile attacks after US strikes; Israel also hit southern Lebanon amid a separate Israel-Lebanon framework that Hezbollah rejected. Market Pulse: Oil prices slid back toward pre-war levels on easing supply fears, but fuel relief may lag for consumers. Gulf Investment Hit: Macquarie pulled out of a Kuwait oil pipeline stake deal, citing uncertainty tied to the Iran war and disrupted export routes. Local Energy Costs: In Hong Kong, HK Electric warned higher fuel surcharges after Qatar gas supply was disrupted, while LPG prices in India rose for households and Ujjwala beneficiaries. Policy & Diplomacy: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi is reported heading to Iraq as Baghdad weighs its role amid US pressure on Iran-backed militias.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: A tanker was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz as the US and Iran traded strikes, with Bahrain also reporting Iranian drone attacks—raising fresh doubts about the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and the pace of reopening the world’s key oil corridor. Diplomatic Wordplay: Oman and Iran are now arguing over how navigation “services” and “associated costs” should work in the US-Iran memorandum, while Tehran pushes for Tehran-approved transit routes. Energy Markets: Oil slid sharply as more tankers moved through the strait, but the incidents kept risk premium alive; Wall Street’s rebound still hinges on whether shipping security holds. Regional Fallout: Bahrain condemned the drone attacks, while Iraq’s PM signaled closer ties with Washington without taking sides. Trade/Prices: India ended some LPG supply curbs as Hormuz traffic improved, and discounted Iranian crude intermediaries reportedly reached Indian refiners after a US sanctions waiver. Finance: Nasdaq Dubai listed a $500m Arab Energy Fund Sukuk, underscoring continued capital flow into Gulf energy finance.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: The U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar sites after an Iranian drone attack hit the Singapore-flagged cargo ship M/V Ever Lovely, with CENTCOM calling it a “foolish violation” of the recently signed U.S.-Iran ceasefire and releasing strike footage; Retaliation & Warnings: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they targeted U.S. sites in the Gulf in response, while VP JD Vance warned “violence will be met with violence” and urged Tehran to resolve MoU disputes via diplomacy; Diplomacy Under Strain: Oman and Egypt’s foreign ministers discussed de-escalation and keeping energy and trade flowing through Hormuz; Energy Markets: Oil slid back toward pre-war levels as Hormuz shipping improved, helping U.S. stocks hold steady, while European gas prices edged higher on renewed security risk; Regional Shipping: Iraq welcomed plans to reopen Hormuz for normal navigation, but Japan’s shipowners warned safe passage is still not assured as the UN paused escort/evacuation efforts after the latest attack; Sanctions & Supply: A 60-day U.S. license allows some Iranian energy transactions, yet Indian refiners are unlikely to rush back into Iranian crude buying due to waiver uncertainty and existing supply commitments.

Strait of Hormuz Flashpoint: Trump accused Iran of a “foolish” ceasefire breach after a drone strike hit a cargo ship near Oman, while Iran insisted it controls approved transit routes and warned Gulf states against siding with Washington—keeping maritime safety and oil flows in the spotlight. UN Nuclear Verification: IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said Iran’s no-weapons pledge needs “very strong” verification, as inspectors’ access talks remain a key sticking point in the US-Iran track. Iraq OPEC Tension: Iraq’s oil ministry denied any plan to leave OPEC, but reiterated quota reviews tied to Iraq’s security and economic conditions, after a dispute over a reported $140bn revenue gap. Gulf Markets Watch: Dubai’s index slipped as oil eased with more tankers exiting Hormuz, while Abu Dhabi was flat—investors still wary of fresh shipping incidents. Energy Projects Beyond the Conflict: Kazakhstan is set to build a cargo terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas to reach Asian and African markets; Ghana broke ground on expanding a Chinese-built oil refinery to 100,000 bpd; Egypt signed deals with Sany for 2 GW wind manufacturing and a 2 GW wind farm. Policy Ripple Effects: US diesel refining economics stayed firm on product tightness, even as crude softened; meanwhile, subsidy and fuel-price decisions in the region remain under pressure as global crude swings.

Power Grid & Investment: Türkiye says it needs at least $50 billion to upgrade electricity distribution networks over the next decade as demand rises and renewables, EVs and data centers reshape load growth. Cross-Border Power Reform: Türkiye will back Pakistan’s electricity privatization with three cooperation deals covering transmission expertise, market operations, distribution monitoring and capacity building. US-Iran Deal Reality Check: Gulf allies are being told the US-Iran framework won’t undermine their security, but analysts warn the agreement may be hard to enforce and still leaves major gaps. Hormuz Risk vs. Oil Prices: Oil slid about 2% as Strait of Hormuz traffic improved and more tankers cleared, but a projectile hit a cargo ship near Oman, UN escort plans paused, and markets stayed jumpy. Shipping & Navigation: Iran’s new route rules and warnings are testing the “reopened” corridor, with a Singapore-flagged ship reportedly struck after using an unauthorized path. Nuclear Verification: The IAEA chief says Iran needs strong verification after the conflict, not just declared intentions. India Energy Hedging: India is ending some LPG supply curbs as Gulf flows ease, while its petroleum minister met Iran’s counterpart to explore cooperation after years of curtailed trade. OPEC Pressure: Iraq says it may consider options, including leaving OPEC, if quotas aren’t raised—an added stress point for Middle East supply planning.