AGP Executive Report

Iran Sanctions Push: The US is rolling out “Operation Economic Outcast,” urging G20 partners to isolate Iran’s economy and threatening banks and firms that keep helping Tehran, while Reuters reports Washington is considering cutting off UAE-linked Banque Misr branches from the US dollar system. Hormuz Standoff: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed and any Oman transit understanding only kicks in if the US meets commitments; Iran’s leaders also insist US claims on shipping are “lies,” as Israel’s energy minister warns Israel could strike Iran even after any US deal. Energy Routes Beyond Hormuz: Arab producers are leaning on six pipeline options to keep crude moving, including Saudi Arabia’s East-West line and UAE-Iraq links, as Hormuz disruption reshapes flows. Regional Infrastructure Security: The UAE is adding “cope cages” around Abu Dhabi oil and fuel tanks to blunt drone attacks, while Iraq pushes banking reforms to protect reserves and investment capacity. Market Signals: Turkey’s new Emissions Trading System is set to reshape heavy industry costs, and Nigeria leads Africa’s $221bn oil and gas investment drive. Fuel Costs Watch: Israel’s fuel formula lifted September surcharges to record levels, while US crude imports from Iraq reportedly fell to zero last week.

Egypt Renewables Finance: IFC is set to provide up to $100m for Egypt’s 900-MW Shadwan wind project, aiming to cut power costs and expand wind capacity under a 25-year power purchase deal. Iran–Hormuz Energy Standoff: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the IRGC Navy both deny US claims that 130m barrels moved through Hormuz, while Washington says the strait is open under US protection and Iran keeps “full control.” Iran Gas Supply Update: Iran says it has found 7.5 tcf of gas in Fars province, even as sanctions and attacks have disrupted output and winter supply planning. Iran Sanctions Toll: President Pezeshkian says US sanctions have reduced exports and imports by 25%-35% and signals gasoline price adjustments may follow. Gulf Shipping Investment Shift: The Iran war is pushing Gulf states to reroute trade and pour money into ports and pipelines to reduce dependence on Hormuz. EU Winter Gas Pressure: Europe heads into winter with gas stocks at a 13-year low, raising volatility risks as filling lags. US–Venezuela Oil Deal: Trump’s “biggest oil deal” gives the US majority control in a new venture tied to 65bn barrels, but analysts warn fuel-price relief could take years. Egypt Water & Energy Efficiency: Egypt plans digitised groundwater well licensing and more solar-powered pumping, while also exploring solar and efficiency upgrades in agriculture and industry. Iraq Construction Expo: Erbil’s building exhibition is drawing firms focused on sustainable energy and infrastructure partnerships. West Bank Violence: Israeli settler attacks in Qusra and other villages continue, with reports of sieges and tear gas during clashes.

Venezuela Oil Deal: Trump says the US has struck a “biggest oil deal in world history,” gaining majority control over 65bn barrels of proven Venezuelan reserves via a new venture with a private operator, with claims of $100bn investment and $209bn in taxes for Caracas—aimed at easing US fuel prices amid the Iran war. Iran Sanctions Standoff: Iran vows to resist new US sanctions, insisting diplomacy and defense are inseparable while it reports $7.5bn in oil revenue transferred to the central bank despite a naval blockade. Hormuz Power Struggle: The Strait of Hormuz remains the flashpoint: US says mines are cleared and lanes are open, while Iran’s IRGC Navy calls Washington’s claims “lies” and says passage needs Iranian coordination. Market Pressure: Oil prices slid as traders weighed Fed signals and Hormuz uncertainty, with weekly losses deepening. Iraq Power Backup Crisis: Iraq’s private generator owners warn of shutdowns in September over unmet government fuel support, as grid outages persist. Regional Energy Diplomacy: UN chief Guterres urges US and Iran to resume talks, while Iran’s president says Hormuz reopening depends on US lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets. Middle East Spillover: Israeli strikes in Gaza and the West Bank continue alongside the wider war’s shipping and energy disruptions.

Iran War at 6 Months: The U.S. and Israel’s conflict with Iran is now half a year old, but Washington says it’s shifting from military action to tougher economic pressure, while Trump insists he’s “not in a hurry” to negotiate. Hormuz Shipping & Oil Flows: CENTCOM says Iranian sea mines have been cleared and tanker traffic is recovering, with Persian Gulf exports back to about two-thirds of pre-war levels—helping ease some oil risk, even as prices stay volatile. Sanctions Escalation: Iran calls new U.S. measures “state terrorism” and warns countries against implementing secondary sanctions, as Washington targets Iran-linked financial and oil-smuggling networks. Venezuela Oil Access: The U.S. is reportedly nearing a “massive” long-term deal for access to Venezuelan oil fields, potentially via a lease model, as supply concerns linger. Regional Energy Ripple Effects: Georgia is using an emergency fuel waiver to boost gasoline availability and curb pump prices, while Turkey and Saudi Arabia are moving ahead with renewable power cooperation. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: Iran-linked cyber activity is raising alarms, including warnings about threats to water and other operational systems.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Qatar’s PM and foreign minister met Iran’s Abbas Araghchi in Tehran, pushing de-escalation and a framework with Oman for safe passage and mine clearance, while Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran is drafting conditions for reopening shipping and wants “practical steps” from Washington first. US Naval Claim: CENTCOM said it cleared Iranian sea mines from Hormuz’s international lanes and called it a “major milestone,” though Iran disputes the claim—keeping markets focused on whether traffic really returns. Oil Market Mood: Oil prices swung as traders weighed Hormuz talk hopes against Trump’s stance that he won’t revive the June Iran memorandum; Brent and WTI both eased on the week. Iran Economic Pressure: Iran’s oil minister said crude sales and deliveries to international customers are continuing despite US blockades, as Washington expands “Operation Economic Outcast.” Regional Energy Risk: Saudi oil infrastructure faces fresh scrutiny amid the Iran-Houthi threat backdrop, with analysts warning of elevated prices and a possible $100/bbl risk. Local Spillover: In the UK, record heat-pump grant demand rose after the Iran-war-linked energy shock, while Save the Children warned higher oil costs could cut aid delivery for 1.5m children. Trade Watch (Türkiye): Türkiye’s exports rose 2.9% to $25.62B in July, but imports grew faster, widening the trade deficit—energy-excluding figures still show pressure on the import bill.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Qatar’s PM Sheikh Mohammed met Iran’s Araghchi, Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf in Tehran to push a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor and mine-clearing plan, while Iran says the waterway stays closed until the US meets its terms. Sanctions & Blockade: Iran’s oil minister says sales and deliveries continue despite the US naval blockade; CENTCOM says it redirected 75 vessels and boarded two, as Washington threatens secondary sanctions that could hit China-linked trade. Market Pulse: Oil prices swung as Hormuz reopening hopes grew then faded; traders also flagged a diesel crunch tied to refinery outages and tight US distillate stocks. Domestic Fallout: Iran reports petrol shortages and long queues as blockade limits imports. Energy Politics: Trump says the Strait is “open” and millions of barrels are moving, while Reuters reports he’ll meet refiners and fuel retailers to ease gas-price pressure ahead of midterms. Regional Economics: Alberta forecasts a $2bn surplus as Middle East war-driven oil prices lift WTI, but officials warn the outlook can flip fast. Local Energy Security: Eni says it expects a fast-track final investment decision on Egypt’s Denise West gas/condensate find within months.

Hormuz Risk Reprices Oil: Crude slid for a fourth straight session as Iran and Oman edged toward a phased Strait of Hormuz navigation corridor, while Iran still warned the waterway stays closed unless US terms are met. Shipping Fallout: Iran’s blacklist of shuttle tankers is already pushing some Indian refiners and a major global energy firm to avoid designated vessels and STS transfers, raising premiums for compliant shipping. US Pressure Tools: The US Justice Department is preparing to revive maritime “prize courts” to speed up claims on Iranian oil tankers as US economic pressure deepens. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar’s PM is set to visit Tehran to help de-escalate and restore freedom of navigation, adding to a wider mediation push. Energy Security at Home: Jordan signed UAE-funded deals to bring natural gas to two industrial cities, aiming to cut costs and boost competitiveness. Economic Impact: WFP warned the Iran war could drive 45 million more people into acute hunger by June, as oil, food and shipping costs keep climbing. Market Watch: Gulf stocks closed mixed as oil fell on Hormuz reopening hopes.

Strait of Hormuz Negotiations: Iran and Oman are still hashing out a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor, with details not yet finalized and talks continuing as Qatar joins mediation; Iran also warns military vessels could be barred under any binding arrangement. Sanctions & Shipping Pressure: Iran stopped an Indian oil tanker transiting Hormuz and Tehran’s new blacklist is pushing at least three Indian refiners and other firms to avoid certain vessels, including those involved in ship-to-ship transfers. Iraq Gas Push: Iraq’s Oil Ministry and Shell discussed boosting Basra gas production and expanding use of associated gas to cut flaring and secure fuel for power plants and industry. Market & Policy Ripples: IMF chief Georgieva said the global economy has weathered the Iran-war energy shock better than feared, helped by reserve drawdowns and more renewables, but fiscal stress is rising. UK Energy Bills: Ofgem’s 4% October price-cap rise (on top of the prior increase) is set to lift typical household bills by about £60+ to around £1,723, as the UK debate turns to how much governments can control war-driven energy costs. Energy Finance: Operation Economic Outcast targets Iran’s trade partners, with analysts warning it could further reshape global energy flows and security risks. Power & Industry: Azerbaijan’s recalibrated ties with Russia after Assad’s fall underscore how regional security shifts are reshaping energy geopolitics.

Strait of Hormuz diplomacy: Iran and Oman say they’ve agreed a “temporary joint navigation corridor” and mine-clearing steps, but Tehran insists the strait won’t fully reopen unless the US ends its blockade and meets its commitments—while a tanker was hit near the entrance, keeping shipping risk in focus. US Iran pressure shift: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Washington is pausing new strikes “for the time being” and leaning on sanctions and economic measures, as Trump touts a “watershed moment” after US mine-clearing in international waters. Sanctions ripple through shipping: Iran’s new blacklist of 45 vessels is pushing Indian refiners and major firms to avoid ship-to-ship transfers, threatening “shuttle run” flows used by Gulf producers. Oil market impact: Brent slid below $90 and Iraqi crude prices fell more than 6% as Hormuz reopening hopes eased supply fears. UK cost-of-living hit: Ofgem raised the October energy price cap 4% to £1,723, adding about £60 a year, with the Middle East conflict and wholesale gas costs driving the increase. Iran domestic strain: Reports say Iran faces growing fuel shortages, with long queues and subsidy pressure as US squeezes imports. Regional energy deals: Türkiye and Syria signed a mining pact focused on phosphate, alongside expanded cross-border electricity plans.

Iran Sanctions Pressure: Iran’s capital saw petrol queues after the US announced fresh sanctions aimed at “economic asphyxiation,” with Tehran warning of retaliation as Washington targets Iran-linked military, cyber and oil-shipping networks. Hormuz Shipping Talks: Iran and Oman’s top diplomats agreed on a phased plan for a temporary joint navigation corridor and mine-clearing in the Strait of Hormuz, as attacks and mine fears keep traffic low and shippers cautious. Market Mood: Oil prices slid again as investors shrugged off the latest sanctions push, while US and global stocks edged higher; the IMF said the global economy has so far “resisted” the Hormuz shock, though Middle East growth is still downgraded. Regional Energy Fallout: The IMF flagged rising fiscal pressure tied to energy disruption, and Germany’s growth was revised up despite the Iran-war turmoil. Syria Power Shift: Syria’s Kurdish-led SDF dissolved and fighters integrated into state forces, with oil-rich north and northeast areas now under tighter government control.

Energy Storage & Grid Buildout: L&T won a Middle East order to develop three BESS projects totaling 6 GWh (4-hour duration each) with liquid cooling, plus grid interconnections and pooling substations. Sanctions Pressure on Iran: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” expanding secondary sanctions across digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, and targeting nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, people and vessels. Hormuz Risk Escalates: Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for Strait of Hormuz rule violations, warning of fines, detention and cargo seizure; separately, a tanker was struck and disabled by an unknown projectile near Oman, with crew safe. Markets & Oil: Oil slipped after the latest sanctions push as traders weighed “economic asphyxiation” rhetoric against limited immediate supply disruption; Asian stocks were mixed and gold jumped on Middle East conflict and uncertainty. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan’s army chief held talks in Tehran focused on preventing escalation and reopening Hormuz. Cybersecurity Warning: A reported Iran-linked cyberattack that shut down a UK power plant for days is raising alarms about critical-infrastructure vulnerability. Power Sector Deals (Saudi): Saudi Arabia’s SPPC signed storage service agreements for first BESS projects totaling 2,000 MW / 8,000 MWh under a BOO model.

Iran Sanctions Push: The U.S. Treasury launched “Operation Economic Outcast,” warning countries and firms that any business ties with Iran could trigger secondary sanctions and exclusion from the dollar system, targeting five sectors tied to Iran’s oil and revenue channels: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, with nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels hit. Hormuz Shipping Risk: Iran says it will enforce stricter Strait of Hormuz transit rules, threatening fines, detention or seizure for violating ships, while warning that continued U.S. economic pressure could mean “not a single drop” of Gulf oil exports. Regional Energy Security: France and Saudi Arabia called for normal navigation in Hormuz as tensions rise, and a reported projectile incident near Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port adds to concerns for Red Sea and Gulf shipping. Cyber Threats: Reports say Iran-linked hackers shut down a UK power plant for days, underscoring spillover risks for critical infrastructure. Market Pulse: Escalating U.S.-Iran pressure lifted safe-haven demand, with gold jumping to a five-month high in India; meanwhile, oil price weakness and sanctions uncertainty kept markets choppy. Fuel Cost Backdrop (US): U.S. gasoline and diesel prices stayed elevated into late August, with AAA warning Labor Day could push regular above $4.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei warned that if the “economic war” continues, “not a single drop” of oil will be exported, and any country supporting the US campaign will be treated as an “act of war.” US Sanctions Push: Markets slid as the US prepares “economic D-Day” measures aimed at Iran’s trading partners and financial lifelines, with investors watching for any Hormuz retaliation. Shipping Rules & Fees: Iran’s parliament committee approved a draft law to charge ships transiting Hormuz for navigation, environmental, insurance, security and other services—collected in rials or another Tehran-set currency. Diplomacy to Manage Risk: Oman’s foreign minister Badr al-Busaidi is set to visit Tehran to discuss regulating Hormuz passage, while Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir heads to Iran to continue peace efforts. New Gas Boost: Iran’s oil minister Mohsen Paknejad announced major gas finds in Fars province—over 7.5 trillion cubic feet in place, with about 5.7 trillion recoverable—framed as long-term energy support amid sanctions. EU Windfall Tax Talks: Six EU countries urged an EU-wide mechanism in September to tax oil-company windfall profits tied to the Hormuz supply shock. Oil Prices: Brent and WTI fell more than 1% as traders positioned ahead of the sanctions details.

Strait of Hormuz & Sanctions: Iran’s Strait of Hormuz regulator (PGSA) says “authorised” ships must pay service fees and warns non-compliant vessels could face fines, detention or confiscation as tensions rise and the waterway remains a key global oil chokepoint. Diplomacy Under Pressure: Iran’s president Pezeshkian defended a US memorandum as the best path out of “neither war nor peace,” while Iran’s new security chief warned Gulf states that joining US “economic war” would make them enemies—amid reports the US is preparing “unprecedented” new sanctions. Regional Mediation: Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir is set to travel to Tehran to revive stalled US-Iran talks, as Islamabad tries to position itself as a stabilising diplomatic player in a Middle East in transition. Energy Security & Cyber: Iran-linked hackers shut down a UK power plant for four days, adding to concerns that the conflict is spilling into critical infrastructure. Oil & Gas Developments: Egypt’s Petroleum Ministry met ADNOC Drilling to discuss expanding onshore and offshore well programs, while Iraq plans to attend Gastech 2026 to bring in gas and LNG know-how. Market Spillovers: Oil prices and shipping risks tied to the Iran conflict continue to feed inflation and trade uncertainty, with global crude and refined product flows under strain.

Hormuz & Sanctions: Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian doubled down on no concessions and said the US memorandum is the best path out of a stalled war, while Iran’s top security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned neighboring states that joining Washington’s “economic war” makes them enemies—adding Iran could block oil exports and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until US commitments are met. Cyber & Power Security: Iran-linked hackers reportedly shut down a small UK power plant for four days in an “unprecedented” cyberattack, prompting UK officials to brief power firms and stress resilience. Diplomacy to Restart Talks: Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi discussed ways to revive long-stalled direct US-Iran talks, with mediators pushing after a 60-day window. Gulf Shipping Risk: Somali pirates hijacked a US-sanctioned oil products tanker off Yemen, steering it toward Somalia amid renewed piracy in the Gulf of Aden as regional tensions disrupt routes. Saudi Grid Storage Push: Saudi Energy signed battery storage deals worth about $867m (1,500MW/6,000MWh) plus a separate $283m Al-Muwaih project, expanding grid flexibility as renewables grow. Household Bills: UK Ofgem’s upcoming energy price cap is expected to lift bills again by about 4% from October, with analysts citing Middle East conflict-driven wholesale price uncertainty.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Iran says the chokepoint is still effectively closed, with tanker traffic down to about 6% of normal, as Brent pushes toward $94 amid mounting US-Iran economic pressure. Iraqi Oil Transit: Iran has granted permission for some Iraqi oil tankers to pass, while Iraq’s president insists Iraqi territory won’t be used for attacks. Economic War Threats: Iran warns neighboring states against joining the US “economic war,” threatening to target interests and oil routes if they cooperate. Diplomacy in the Mix: Egypt and Iran’s foreign ministers discussed efforts to revive negotiations, including Hormuz management talks. Regional Energy Costs: Egypt-Djibouti talks also spotlight renewable energy and logistics, while Guam’s power authority links higher fuel costs directly to Hormuz disruption and the Iran-US conflict. Europe Windfall Tax Push: Six EU countries eye a special tax on oil firms’ extra profits as energy prices surge. Fuel Prices Ripple: US gas prices remain volatile, with reports tying pump moves to Middle East supply risk and Hormuz uncertainty. Security Spillover: Israel-US tensions flare over a Syria air strike, adding another layer to regional risk.